CHI
NOP
Chicago Bulls @ New Orleans Pelicans
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NOPNew Orleans Pelicans
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pelicans can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pelicans -2.2, Bulls -16.2.
- Simulation: the Pelicans win 6,460 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Pelicans play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to the Pelicans in our ratings.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pelicans 9th (26.7%), Bulls 26th (23.4%).
Disadvantages Why Pelicans may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 3,540 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- The Bulls' shooting (54.3% eFG%, 14th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bulls 6th (75.1%), Pelicans 27th (71.7%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pelicans lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pelicans rank 27th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NOP -4.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 243.4 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · NOP n/a | CHI 35% · NOP 65% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +182 · NOP -182 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pelicans 124, Bulls 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 12 and Pelicans by 21.
Side by side
| CHI | NOP | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-4 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | -4.2 21 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 111.2 18 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 115.4 23 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 52.8% 26 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 55.5% 23 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.8 10 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 26.7% 9 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 34.4% 25 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 104.1 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 2025-26 | NOP 118 @ CHI 134 | CHI |
| 2025-12-14 | 2025-26 | NOP 114 @ CHI 104 | NOP |
| 2025-11-24 | 2025-26 | CHI 130 @ NOP 143 | NOP |
| 2025-01-14 | 2024-25 | NOP 119 @ CHI 113 | NOP |
| 2024-10-23 | 2024-25 | CHI 111 @ NOP 123 | NOP |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works