CHI
NYK
Chicago Bulls @ New York Knicks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NYKNew York Knicks
81% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Knicks can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.2 points to the Knicks in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Bulls 24th (-5.5).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Knicks +0.2, Bulls -16.2.
- Simulation: the Knicks win 8,120 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Knicks' offense (116.4 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Bulls defense that ranks 25th.
Disadvantages Why Knicks may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 1,880 of 10,000 simulations (19%). A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 5 or more.
- Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYK -11.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.8 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · NYK n/a | CHI 19% · NYK 81% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +433 · NYK -433 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Knicks 122, Bulls 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 5 and Knicks by 28.
Side by side
| CHI | NYK | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | +7.6 3 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 116.4 3 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 108.7 4 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 5 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 53.3% 7 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.7 9 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 29.3% 5 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 37.5% 3 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 99.8 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-27 | NYK 133 @ CHI 127 | NYK |
| 2026-04-03 | 2025-26 | CHI 96 @ NYK 136 | NYK |
| 2026-02-22 | 2025-26 | NYK 105 @ CHI 99 | NYK |
| 2025-11-02 | 2025-26 | CHI 116 @ NYK 128 | NYK |
| 2025-10-31 | 2025-26 | NYK 125 @ CHI 135 | CHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works