CHI
OKC
Chicago Bulls @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
82% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.8 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Bulls 24th (-5.5).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Thunder +3.6, Bulls -16.2.
- Simulation: the Thunder win 8,220 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.7 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 1,780 of 10,000 simulations (18%). A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 5 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bulls 6th (75.1%), Thunder 17th (73.8%).
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -12.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.8 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · OKC n/a | CHI 18% · OKC 82% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +462 · OKC -462 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 123, Bulls 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 5 and Thunder by 29.
Side by side
| CHI | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | 2025-26 | CHI 113 @ OKC 131 | OKC |
| 2026-03-03 | 2025-26 | OKC 116 @ CHI 108 | OKC |
| 2025-03-31 | 2024-25 | CHI 117 @ OKC 145 | OKC |
| 2024-10-26 | 2024-25 | OKC 114 @ CHI 95 | OKC |
| 2023-11-22 | 2023-24 | CHI 102 @ OKC 116 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works