CHI
ORL
Chicago Bulls @ Orlando Magic
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ORLOrlando Magic
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Magic can win
- Simulation: the Magic win 6,480 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Magic play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to the Magic in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Magic 17th (-0.2), Bulls 24th (-5.5).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.4 points to the Magic in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Magic may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 3,520 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Magic lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Magic rank 29th of 30 in three-point shooting (34.0%).
- Weak spot: the Magic rank 28th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (52.4%).
- Three-point shooting: Bulls 22nd (35.0%), Magic 29th (34.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ORL -5.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 237.9 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · ORL n/a | CHI 35% · ORL 65% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +184 · ORL -184 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Magic 122, Bulls 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 12 and Magic by 21.
Side by side
| CHI | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-3 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | -0.2 17 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 110.4 22 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 110.6 9 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 28 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 53.9% 9 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.9 11 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 24.8% 19 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 34.0% 29 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 103.1 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 2025-26 | ORL 127 @ CHI 103 | ORL |
| 2026-01-02 | 2025-26 | ORL 114 @ CHI 121 | CHI |
| 2025-12-01 | 2025-26 | CHI 120 @ ORL 125 | ORL |
| 2025-10-25 | 2025-26 | CHI 110 @ ORL 98 | CHI |
| 2025-03-06 | 2024-25 | CHI 125 @ ORL 123 | CHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works