CHI
PHX
Chicago Bulls @ Phoenix Suns
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHXPhoenix Suns
67% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Suns can win
- Simulation: the Suns win 6,660 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to the Suns in our ratings.
- Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Suns 16th (+0.2), Bulls 24th (-5.5).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Bulls 29th (12.2).
Disadvantages Why Suns may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 3,340 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bulls 6th (75.1%), Suns 28th (71.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Suns lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: the Suns rank 28th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.4%).
- Weak spot: the Suns rank 28th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHX -5.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 236.5 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · PHX n/a | CHI 33% · PHX 67% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +199 · PHX -199 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Suns 121, Bulls 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 11 and Suns by 22.
Side by side
| CHI | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-2 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | +0.2 16 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 111.8 17 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 111.6 13 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 53.7% 19 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 54.3% 16 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 19 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 7 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 35.9% 13 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 100.3 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | 2025-26 | PHX 120 @ CHI 110 | PHX |
| 2026-03-05 | 2025-26 | CHI 105 @ PHX 103 | CHI |
| 2025-03-19 | 2024-25 | CHI 121 @ PHX 127 | PHX |
| 2025-02-22 | 2024-25 | PHX 121 @ CHI 117 | PHX |
| 2024-01-22 | 2023-24 | CHI 113 @ PHX 115 | PHX |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works