CHI
POR
Chicago Bulls @ Portland Trail Blazers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
75% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Bulls -16.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.5 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 7,530 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.6 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Home court: the Trail Blazers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 2,470 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Bulls 17th (14.5), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bulls 6th (75.1%), Trail Blazers 24th (72.9%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Trail Blazers lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: the Trail Blazers rank 30th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (16.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -8.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 239.3 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · POR n/a | CHI 25% · POR 75% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +304 · POR -304 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Trail Blazers 124, Bulls 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 8 and Trail Blazers by 25.
Side by side
| CHI | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | -0.5 18 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 110.9 21 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 111.4 12 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 53.2% 24 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 12 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.3 30 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 30.9% 2 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 34.1% 28 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 103.7 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | 2025-26 | POR 121 @ CHI 112 | POR |
| 2025-11-19 | 2025-26 | CHI 122 @ POR 121 | CHI |
| 2025-04-04 | 2024-25 | POR 113 @ CHI 118 | CHI |
| 2025-01-19 | 2024-25 | CHI 102 @ POR 113 | POR |
| 2024-03-18 | 2023-24 | POR 107 @ CHI 110 | CHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works