CHI
SAC
Chicago Bulls @ Sacramento Kings
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bulls
51% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Bulls can win
- The Bulls' shooting (54.3% eFG%, 14th in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 29th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to the Bulls in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Bulls win 5,100 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bulls 6th (75.1%), Kings 21st (73.4%).
- Three-point shooting: Bulls 22nd (35.0%), Kings 30th (33.8%).
Disadvantages Why Bulls may not
- Upset odds: the Kings win 4,900 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Bulls lose by 16 or more.
- Body clock: the Bulls cross 2 time zones.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Kings 14th (25.8%), Bulls 26th (23.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -0.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 241.1 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · SAC n/a | CHI 51% · SAC 49% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI -104 · SAC +104 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Kings 121, Bulls 121.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 17 and Kings by 16.
Side by side
| CHI | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 0-5 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | -10.1 29 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 108.3 28 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 118.5 28 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 29 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 57.3% 29 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.1 14 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 25.8% 14 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 33.8% 30 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 102.4 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | 2025-26 | CHI 110 @ SAC 126 | SAC |
| 2025-10-29 | 2025-26 | SAC 113 @ CHI 126 | CHI |
| 2025-03-20 | 2024-25 | CHI 128 @ SAC 116 | CHI |
| 2025-01-12 | 2024-25 | SAC 124 @ CHI 119 | SAC |
| 2024-03-04 | 2023-24 | CHI 113 @ SAC 109 | CHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works