CHI
SAS
Chicago Bulls @ San Antonio Spurs
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
85% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 85% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.7 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Bulls 24th (-5.5).
- Simulation: the Spurs win 8,490 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Spurs +6.6, Bulls -16.2.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 4.1 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 1,510 of 10,000 simulations (15%). A 85% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 4 or more.
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -13.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 237 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · SAS n/a | CHI 15% · SAS 85% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +562 · SAS -562 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Spurs 125, Bulls 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 4 and Spurs by 30.
Side by side
| CHI | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 10 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 35.8% 14 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 102.5 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | 2025-26 | CHI 114 @ SAS 129 | SAS |
| 2025-11-10 | 2025-26 | SAS 121 @ CHI 117 | SAS |
| 2025-01-06 | 2024-25 | SAS 110 @ CHI 114 | CHI |
| 2024-12-05 | 2024-25 | CHI 139 @ SAS 124 | CHI |
| 2024-01-13 | 2023-24 | CHI 122 @ SAS 116 | CHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works