CHI
TOR
Chicago Bulls @ Toronto Raptors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
80% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.6 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Bulls -16.2.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 7,970 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Raptors 9th (+3.0), Bulls 24th (-5.5).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.4 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 2,030 of 10,000 simulations (20%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 6 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bulls 6th (75.1%), Raptors 20th (73.6%).
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 21st of 30 in three-point shooting (35.2%).
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 20th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (73.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -10.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.7 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · TOR n/a | CHI 20% · TOR 80% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +392 · TOR -392 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Raptors 123, Bulls 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 6 and Raptors by 27.
Side by side
| CHI | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | +3.0 9 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 112.4 15 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 109.4 7 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 15 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 53.8% 8 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 8 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 25.7% 15 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 35.2% 21 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 101.8 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | 2026-27 | CHI 92 @ TOR 135 | TOR |
| 2026-03-18 | 2025-26 | TOR 139 @ CHI 109 | TOR |
| 2026-02-19 | 2025-26 | TOR 110 @ CHI 101 | TOR |
| 2026-02-05 | 2025-26 | CHI 107 @ TOR 123 | TOR |
| 2025-04-01 | 2024-25 | TOR 118 @ CHI 137 | CHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works