CHI
UTA
Chicago Bulls @ Utah Jazz
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
UTAUtah Jazz
58% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Jazz can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Jazz -7.8, Bulls -16.2.
- Simulation: the Jazz win 5,830 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Jazz play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Jazz 12th (26.3%), Bulls 26th (23.4%).
- The Jazz' offense (111.1 points per 100 possessions, 20th in the NBA) meets a Bulls defense that ranks 25th.
Disadvantages Why Jazz may not
- The Bulls' shooting (54.3% eFG%, 14th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 4,170 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bulls 6th (75.1%), Jazz 22nd (73.1%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Jazz lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Jazz rank 30th of 30 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (57.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | UTA -2.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 242.6 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · UTA n/a | CHI 42% · UTA 58% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +140 · UTA -140 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Jazz 123, Bulls 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 14 and Jazz by 19.
Side by side
| CHI | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-4 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | -7.9 27 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 111.1 20 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 119.0 29 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 53.6% 20 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 57.6% 30 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.8 21 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 12 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 34.4% 24 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 105.6 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | 2025-26 | UTA 126 @ CHI 128 | CHI |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025-26 | CHI 147 @ UTA 150 | UTA |
| 2025-03-17 | 2024-25 | CHI 111 @ UTA 97 | CHI |
| 2024-11-04 | 2024-25 | UTA 135 @ CHI 126 | UTA |
| 2024-03-06 | 2023-24 | CHI 119 @ UTA 117 | CHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works