CHI
WAS
Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
WASWashington Wizards
58% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Wizards can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Wizards -2.2, Bulls -16.2.
- Simulation: the Wizards win 5,840 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Wizards play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.6 points to the Wizards in our ratings.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Wizards 22nd (13.2), Bulls 29th (12.2).
Disadvantages Why Wizards may not
- The Bulls' shooting (54.3% eFG%, 14th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 4,160 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bulls 6th (75.1%), Wizards 30th (70.0%).
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Bulls 24th (-5.5), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Wizards lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | WAS -2.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 240.6 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · WAS n/a | CHI 42% · WAS 58% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +140 · WAS -140 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wizards 122, Bulls 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 14 and Wizards by 19.
Side by side
| CHI | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | -10.9 30 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 108.2 29 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 119.2 30 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 53.5% 21 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 55.9% 27 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 23 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 22 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 104.3 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | 2026-27 | WAS 124 @ CHI 120 | WAS |
| 2026-04-09 | 2025-26 | CHI 119 @ WAS 108 | CHI |
| 2026-04-07 | 2025-26 | CHI 129 @ WAS 98 | CHI |
| 2025-11-22 | 2025-26 | WAS 120 @ CHI 121 | CHI |
| 2025-04-11 | 2024-25 | WAS 89 @ CHI 119 | CHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works