CLE

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

ATL

Our pick

ATLAtlanta Hawks

57% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

CLE 43%ATL 57%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Hawks can win

Simulation: the Hawks win 5,710 of 10,000 simulated games.
Home court: the Hawks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Three-point shooting: Hawks 7th (36.7%), Cavaliers 19th (35.4%).
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Hawks 7th (13.6), Cavaliers 15th (14.2).
Strength: the Hawks rank 6th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (15.4).

Disadvantages Why Hawks may not

The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Hawks defense that ranks 19th.
Upset odds: the Cavaliers win 4,290 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 15 or more.
Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Cavaliers 10th (0.21), Hawks 27th (0.18).
Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Cavaliers 8th (27.0%), Hawks 20th (24.3%).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	ATL -2.3
Total points	n/a	234
Win chance	CLE n/a · ATL n/a	CLE 43% · ATL 57%
Fair moneyline		CLE +133 · ATL -133

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Hawks 118, Cavaliers 116.
80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 15 and Hawks by 19.

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Side by side

CLE		ATL
3-2	Record	3-3
+2.7 10	Net rating	+1.2 14
114.5 9	Offensive rating	112.5 14
111.8 15	Defensive rating	111.3 11
55.5% 7	Effective FG%	55.0% 11
54.2% 15	Opponent eFG%	54.6% 19
14.2 15	Turnovers per 100	13.6 7
27.0% 8	Offensive rebound %	24.3% 20
35.4% 19	3-point %	36.7% 7
102.6 14	Pace	104.3 6

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-10-29	2026-27	CLE 111 @ ATL 114	ATL
2026-04-10	2025-26	CLE 102 @ ATL 124	ATL
2026-04-08	2025-26	ATL 116 @ CLE 122	CLE
2025-11-28	2025-26	CLE 123 @ ATL 130	ATL
2025-11-02	2025-26	ATL 109 @ CLE 117	CLE

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

CLE

Donovan Mitchell G

27.3 pts, 4.6 reb, 5.1 ast in 34 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

CLE

Evan Mobley C

17.9 pts, 8.8 reb, 3.7 ast in 32.8 min, 54% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

CLE

James Harden G

19.7 pts, 4.9 reb, 6.7 ast in 35.2 min, 43% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

ATL

Jalen Johnson F

22.1 pts, 10 reb, 7.7 ast in 35.1 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 15 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

ATL

Nickeil Alexander-Walker G

20.3 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.5 ast in 33.3 min, 45% FG

vs a defense ranked 15 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

ATL

Dyson Daniels G

11.5 pts, 6.7 reb, 5.8 ast in 32.5 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 15 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Hawks beat the Cavaliers 114-111 at home (2026-10-29). The difference: they made 17 threes to 13, a 12-point swing and they won the boards 53 to 45. Onyeka Okongwu led the Hawks with 29 points.