CLE
BKN
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Brooklyn Nets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Cavaliers
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.5 points to the Cavaliers in our ratings.
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 28th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Nets 28th (-9.9).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Cavaliers +1.0, Nets -9.8.
- Simulation: the Cavaliers win 6,480 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- Home court: the Nets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Nets win 3,520 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 12 or more.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -5.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 232 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · BKN n/a | CLE 65% · BKN 35% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE -184 · BKN +184 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nets 114, Cavaliers 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 21 and Nets by 12.
Side by side
| CLE | BKN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 0-4 |
| +2.7 10 | Net rating | -9.9 28 |
| 114.5 9 | Offensive rating | 105.9 30 |
| 111.8 15 | Defensive rating | 115.9 26 |
| 55.5% 7 | Effective FG% | 52.0% 30 |
| 54.2% 15 | Opponent eFG% | 57.2% 28 |
| 14.2 15 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.8 29 |
| 27.0% 8 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 23 |
| 35.4% 19 | 3-point % | 34.2% 27 |
| 102.6 14 | Pace | 100.4 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | 2026-27 | BKN 121 @ CLE 125 | CLE |
| 2026-03-01 | 2025-26 | CLE 106 @ BKN 102 | CLE |
| 2026-02-19 | 2025-26 | BKN 84 @ CLE 112 | CLE |
| 2025-10-24 | 2025-26 | CLE 131 @ BKN 124 | CLE |
| 2025-03-11 | 2024-25 | BKN 104 @ CLE 109 | CLE |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works