CLE
BOS
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
63% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Simulation: the Celtics win 6,300 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Cavaliers defense that ranks 15th.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Cavaliers +1.0.
- Home court: the Celtics play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Cavaliers win 3,700 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Cavaliers 10th (14.7), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Cavaliers 10th (0.21), Celtics 29th (0.17).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -4.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.3 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · BOS n/a | CLE 37% · BOS 63% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +170 · BOS -170 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 117, Cavaliers 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 12 and Celtics by 21.
Side by side
| CLE | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| +2.7 10 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 114.5 9 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 111.8 15 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 55.5% 7 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 54.2% 15 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 14.2 15 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 27.0% 8 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 35.4% 19 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 102.6 14 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | 2025-26 | BOS 109 @ CLE 98 | BOS |
| 2025-11-30 | 2025-26 | BOS 117 @ CLE 115 | BOS |
| 2025-10-29 | 2025-26 | CLE 105 @ BOS 125 | BOS |
| 2025-02-28 | 2024-25 | CLE 123 @ BOS 116 | CLE |
| 2025-02-04 | 2024-25 | BOS 112 @ CLE 105 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works