CLE

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Charlotte Hornets

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

CHA

Our pick

CLECleveland Cavaliers

50% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

AZMango model

CLE 50%CHA 50%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Cavaliers can win

Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Cavaliers +1.0, Hornets -7.2.
Simulation: the Cavaliers win 5,010 of 10,000 simulated games.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Cavaliers 10th (14.7), Hornets 28th (12.7).
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 15th (14.2), Hornets 28th (15.6).
Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.1 points to the Cavaliers in our ratings.

Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not

Upset odds: the Hornets win 4,990 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Home court: the Hornets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Cavaliers defense that ranks 15th.
Three-point shooting: Hornets 4th (37.2%), Cavaliers 19th (35.4%).
Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Hornets 3rd (76.6%), Cavaliers 18th (73.8%).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	Pick'em
Total points	n/a	224.2
Win chance	CLE n/a · CHA n/a	CLE 50% · CHA 50%
Fair moneyline		CLE -100 · CHA +100

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Hornets 112, Cavaliers 112.
80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 17 and Hornets by 17.

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Side by side

CLE		CHA
3-2	Record	3-2
+2.7 10	Net rating	+3.7 8
114.5 9	Offensive rating	114.6 7
111.8 15	Defensive rating	110.9 10
55.5% 7	Effective FG%	54.7% 13
54.2% 15	Opponent eFG%	54.0% 10
14.2 15	Turnovers per 100	15.6 28
27.0% 8	Offensive rebound %	30.5% 4
35.4% 19	3-point %	37.2% 4
102.6 14	Pace	100.3 25

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-02-20	2025-26	CLE 118 @ CHA 113	CLE
2026-01-21	2025-26	CLE 94 @ CHA 87	CLE
2025-12-22	2025-26	CHA 132 @ CLE 139	CLE
2025-12-14	2025-26	CHA 119 @ CLE 111	CHA
2025-03-07	2024-25	CLE 118 @ CHA 117	CLE

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

CLE

Donovan Mitchell G

27.3 pts, 4.6 reb, 5.1 ast in 34 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 10 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

CLE

Evan Mobley C

17.9 pts, 8.8 reb, 3.7 ast in 32.8 min, 54% FG

vs a defense ranked 10 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

CLE

James Harden G

19.7 pts, 4.9 reb, 6.7 ast in 35.2 min, 43% FG

vs a defense ranked 10 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

CHA

Kon Knueppel G

18.3 pts, 5.3 reb, 3.3 ast in 31.5 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 15 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

CHA

Brandon Miller F

20.5 pts, 5 reb, 3.2 ast in 30.6 min, 43% FG

vs a defense ranked 15 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

CHA

Grayson Allen G

15.2 pts, 3 reb, 3 ast in 28.2 min, 44% FG

vs a defense ranked 15 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Cavaliers beat the Hornets 118-113 on the road (2026-02-20). The difference: they shot 60% effective field goal percentage to 50%. Donovan Mitchell led the Cavaliers with 32 points.