CLE
DAL
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Dallas Mavericks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Mavericks
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Mavericks can win
- Home court: the Mavericks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Mavericks win 5,160 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Relative strength: the Mavericks rank 13th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (14.0).
- Relative strength: the Mavericks rank 13th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.21).
- Relative strength: the Mavericks rank 16th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (73.9%).
Disadvantages Why Mavericks may not
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
- Upset odds: the Cavaliers win 4,840 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 17th.
- The Cavaliers' offense (114.5 points per 100 possessions, 9th in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 20th.
- Point differential per game: Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Mavericks 23rd (-5.1).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -0.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.4 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · DAL n/a | CLE 48% · DAL 52% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +107 · DAL -107 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Mavericks 117, Cavaliers 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 16 and Mavericks by 17.
Side by side
| CLE | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| +2.7 10 | Net rating | -4.8 23 |
| 114.5 9 | Offensive rating | 108.7 26 |
| 111.8 15 | Defensive rating | 113.5 20 |
| 55.5% 7 | Effective FG% | 52.9% 25 |
| 54.2% 15 | Opponent eFG% | 54.5% 17 |
| 14.2 15 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 13 |
| 27.0% 8 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 25 |
| 35.4% 19 | 3-point % | 34.4% 26 |
| 102.6 14 | Pace | 105.0 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | 2025-26 | DAL 130 @ CLE 120 | DAL |
| 2026-03-13 | 2025-26 | CLE 138 @ DAL 105 | CLE |
| 2025-02-02 | 2024-25 | DAL 101 @ CLE 144 | CLE |
| 2025-01-03 | 2024-25 | CLE 134 @ DAL 122 | CLE |
| 2024-02-27 | 2023-24 | DAL 119 @ CLE 121 | CLE |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works