CLE
DET
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
67% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Simulation: the Pistons win 6,670 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Home court: the Pistons play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.3 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Strength: the Pistons rank 1st of 30 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (51.4%).
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Cavaliers win 3,330 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 11 or more.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 15th (14.2), Pistons 24th (15.0).
- History: the Cavaliers won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -5.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.1 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · DET n/a | CLE 33% · DET 67% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +200 · DET -200 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 116, Cavaliers 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 11 and Pistons by 22.
Side by side
| CLE | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| +2.7 10 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 114.5 9 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 111.8 15 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 55.5% 7 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 54.2% 15 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 14.2 15 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 27.0% 8 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 35.4% 19 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 102.6 14 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Playoffs | CLE 125 @ DET 94 | CLE |
| 2026-05-15 | Playoffs | DET 115 @ CLE 94 | DET |
| 2026-05-13 | Playoffs | CLE 117 @ DET 113 | CLE |
| 2026-05-11 | Playoffs | DET 103 @ CLE 112 | CLE |
| 2026-05-09 | Playoffs | DET 109 @ CLE 116 | CLE |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works