CLE
GSW
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Cavaliers
50% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 24th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Warriors 19th (-0.7).
- Simulation: the Cavaliers win 5,030 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Cavaliers' offense (114.5 points per 100 possessions, 9th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 17th.
- Point differential per game: Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Warriors 19th (-0.7).
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 4,970 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Warriors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 17 or more.
- Body clock: the Cavaliers cross 3 time zones.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GSW -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.8 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · GSW n/a | CLE 50% · GSW 50% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE -101 · GSW +101 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Warriors 117, Cavaliers 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 17 and Warriors by 17.
Side by side
| CLE | GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| +2.7 10 | Net rating | -0.7 19 |
| 114.5 9 | Offensive rating | 112.2 16 |
| 111.8 15 | Defensive rating | 112.9 17 |
| 55.5% 7 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 12 |
| 54.2% 15 | Opponent eFG% | 55.6% 24 |
| 14.2 15 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.5 27 |
| 27.0% 8 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 11 |
| 35.4% 19 | 3-point % | 35.7% 16 |
| 102.6 14 | Pace | 102.3 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | 2025-26 | CLE 118 @ GSW 111 | CLE |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-26 | GSW 99 @ CLE 94 | GSW |
| 2024-12-30 | 2024-25 | CLE 113 @ GSW 95 | CLE |
| 2024-11-08 | 2024-25 | GSW 117 @ CLE 136 | CLE |
| 2023-11-11 | 2023-24 | CLE 118 @ GSW 110 | CLE |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works