CLE
HOU
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Houston Rockets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
70% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Cavaliers +1.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.5 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 7,020 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Rockets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.1 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Upset odds: the Cavaliers win 2,980 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 15th (14.2), Rockets 26th (15.4).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 10 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Cavaliers 10th (14.7), Rockets 19th (13.8).
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -7.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.4 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · HOU n/a | CLE 30% · HOU 70% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +235 · HOU -235 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Rockets 118, Cavaliers 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 10 and Rockets by 24.
Side by side
| CLE | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| +2.7 10 | Net rating | +5.2 6 |
| 114.5 9 | Offensive rating | 114.6 8 |
| 111.8 15 | Defensive rating | 109.4 6 |
| 55.5% 7 | Effective FG% | 54.0% 18 |
| 54.2% 15 | Opponent eFG% | 53.0% 6 |
| 14.2 15 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.4 26 |
| 27.0% 8 | Offensive rebound % | 34.3% 1 |
| 35.4% 19 | 3-point % | 36.2% 11 |
| 102.6 14 | Pace | 100.0 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-27 | 2025-26 | CLE 100 @ HOU 117 | HOU |
| 2025-11-19 | 2025-26 | HOU 114 @ CLE 104 | HOU |
| 2025-01-25 | 2024-25 | HOU 135 @ CLE 131 | HOU |
| 2025-01-22 | 2024-25 | CLE 108 @ HOU 109 | HOU |
| 2024-03-16 | 2023-24 | CLE 103 @ HOU 117 | HOU |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works