CLE
IND
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Cavaliers
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 22nd.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to the Cavaliers in our ratings.
- The Cavaliers' offense (114.5 points per 100 possessions, 9th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 24th.
- Simulation: the Cavaliers win 5,640 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 4,360 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Pacers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 15 or more.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -2.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.7 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · IND n/a | CLE 56% · IND 44% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE -129 · IND +129 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pacers 115, Cavaliers 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 19 and Pacers by 15.
Side by side
| CLE | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| +2.7 10 | Net rating | -7.2 26 |
| 114.5 9 | Offensive rating | 108.4 27 |
| 111.8 15 | Defensive rating | 115.6 24 |
| 55.5% 7 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 22 |
| 54.2% 15 | Opponent eFG% | 55.4% 22 |
| 14.2 15 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 12 |
| 27.0% 8 | Offensive rebound % | 21.8% 29 |
| 35.4% 19 | 3-point % | 35.3% 20 |
| 102.6 14 | Pace | 103.9 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | 2025-26 | IND 108 @ CLE 117 | CLE |
| 2026-01-06 | 2025-26 | CLE 120 @ IND 116 | CLE |
| 2025-12-01 | 2025-26 | CLE 135 @ IND 119 | CLE |
| 2025-11-21 | 2025-26 | IND 109 @ CLE 120 | CLE |
| 2025-05-13 | Playoffs | IND 114 @ CLE 105 | IND |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works