CLE
LAC
Cleveland Cavaliers @ LA Clippers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LACLA Clippers
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Clippers can win
- The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Cavaliers defense that ranks 15th.
- Home court: the Clippers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Clippers win 5,210 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Three-point shooting: Clippers 5th (36.9%), Cavaliers 19th (35.4%).
- Body clock: the Cavaliers cross 3 time zones.
Disadvantages Why Clippers may not
- Upset odds: the Cavaliers win 4,790 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
- The Cavaliers' offense (114.5 points per 100 possessions, 9th in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Cavaliers 8th (27.0%), Clippers 24th (23.8%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Clippers lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -0.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.2 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · LAC n/a | CLE 48% · LAC 52% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +109 · LAC -109 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Clippers 114, Cavaliers 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 16 and Clippers by 18.
Side by side
| CLE | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-3 |
| +2.7 10 | Net rating | +0.9 15 |
| 114.5 9 | Offensive rating | 114.0 10 |
| 111.8 15 | Defensive rating | 113.0 18 |
| 55.5% 7 | Effective FG% | 55.9% 4 |
| 54.2% 15 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 18 |
| 14.2 15 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.7 20 |
| 27.0% 8 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 24 |
| 35.4% 19 | 3-point % | 36.9% 5 |
| 102.6 14 | Pace | 99.6 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | 2025-26 | CLE 124 @ LAC 91 | CLE |
| 2025-11-23 | 2025-26 | LAC 105 @ CLE 120 | CLE |
| 2025-03-30 | 2024-25 | LAC 122 @ CLE 127 | CLE |
| 2025-03-18 | 2024-25 | CLE 119 @ LAC 132 | LAC |
| 2024-04-07 | 2023-24 | CLE 118 @ LAC 120 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works