CLE
LAL
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Los Angeles Lakers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Cavaliers defense that ranks 15th.
- Simulation: the Lakers win 6,370 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Lakers +9.6, Cavaliers +1.0.
- Home court: the Lakers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.9 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 20th.
- Upset odds: the Cavaliers win 3,630 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- The Cavaliers' offense (114.5 points per 100 possessions, 9th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 19th.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Cavaliers 8th (27.0%), Lakers 21st (24.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Lakers lose by 12 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -4.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.1 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · LAL n/a | CLE 36% · LAL 64% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +175 · LAL -175 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Lakers 118, Cavaliers 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 12 and Lakers by 21.
Side by side
| CLE | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| +2.7 10 | Net rating | +1.5 13 |
| 114.5 9 | Offensive rating | 114.7 6 |
| 111.8 15 | Defensive rating | 113.2 19 |
| 55.5% 7 | Effective FG% | 57.2% 1 |
| 54.2% 15 | Opponent eFG% | 55.2% 20 |
| 14.2 15 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.9 22 |
| 27.0% 8 | Offensive rebound % | 24.2% 21 |
| 35.4% 19 | 3-point % | 36.3% 9 |
| 102.6 14 | Pace | 100.5 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2025-26 | CLE 113 @ LAL 127 | LAL |
| 2026-01-28 | 2025-26 | LAL 99 @ CLE 129 | CLE |
| 2024-12-31 | 2024-25 | CLE 122 @ LAL 110 | CLE |
| 2024-10-30 | 2024-25 | LAL 110 @ CLE 134 | CLE |
| 2024-04-06 | 2023-24 | CLE 97 @ LAL 116 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works