CLE
MEM
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Memphis Grizzlies
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MEMMemphis Grizzlies
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Grizzlies can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Cavaliers +1.0.
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Grizzlies win 5,390 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Relative strength: the Grizzlies rank 8th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (14.9).
- Relative strength: the Grizzlies rank 16th of 30 in points per game (114.9).
Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8).
- Upset odds: the Cavaliers win 4,610 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- The Cavaliers' offense (114.5 points per 100 possessions, 9th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 22nd.
- Point differential per game: Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Grizzlies 22nd (-5.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MEM -1.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.2 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · MEM n/a | CLE 46% · MEM 54% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +117 · MEM -117 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 117, Cavaliers 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 15 and Grizzlies by 18.
Side by side
| CLE | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| +2.7 10 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 114.5 9 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 111.8 15 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 55.5% 7 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 54.2% 15 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 14.2 15 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 27.0% 8 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 35.4% 19 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 102.6 14 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | 2025-26 | CLE 142 @ MEM 126 | CLE |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-26 | MEM 100 @ CLE 108 | CLE |
| 2025-03-14 | 2024-25 | CLE 133 @ MEM 124 | CLE |
| 2025-02-23 | 2024-25 | MEM 123 @ CLE 129 | CLE |
| 2024-04-10 | 2023-24 | MEM 98 @ CLE 110 | CLE |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works