CLE

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Miami Heat

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

MIA

Our pick

CLECleveland Cavaliers

53% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

AZMango model

CLE 53%MIA 47%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Cavaliers can win

Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Cavaliers +1.0, Heat -7.8.
Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.9 points to the Cavaliers in our ratings.
Simulation: the Cavaliers win 5,300 of 10,000 simulated games.
The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Heat defense that ranks 14th.
Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.9 points to the Cavaliers in our ratings.

Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not

Upset odds: the Heat win 4,700 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Home court: the Heat play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Heat 4th (12.8), Cavaliers 15th (14.2).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 16 or more.
Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Heat 8th (74.6%), Cavaliers 18th (73.8%).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	CLE -1.1
Total points	n/a	236.7
Win chance	CLE n/a · MIA n/a	CLE 53% · MIA 47%
Fair moneyline		CLE -113 · MIA +113

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Heat 118, Cavaliers 119.
80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 18 and Heat by 16.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

CLE		MIA
3-2	Record	1-4
+2.7 10	Net rating	+1.6 12
114.5 9	Offensive rating	113.4 11
111.8 15	Defensive rating	111.8 14
55.5% 7	Effective FG%	54.1% 17
54.2% 15	Opponent eFG%	54.2% 14
14.2 15	Turnovers per 100	12.8 4
27.0% 8	Offensive rebound %	25.2% 16
35.4% 19	3-point %	35.9% 12
102.6 14	Pace	106.3 1

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-03-27	2025-26	MIA 128 @ CLE 149	CLE
2026-03-25	2025-26	MIA 120 @ CLE 103	MIA
2025-11-12	2025-26	CLE 130 @ MIA 116	CLE
2025-11-10	2025-26	CLE 138 @ MIA 140	MIA
2025-04-28	Playoffs	CLE 138 @ MIA 83	CLE

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

CLE

Donovan Mitchell G

27.3 pts, 4.6 reb, 5.1 ast in 34 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

CLE

Evan Mobley C

17.9 pts, 8.8 reb, 3.7 ast in 32.8 min, 54% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

CLE

James Harden G

19.7 pts, 4.9 reb, 6.7 ast in 35.2 min, 43% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

MIA

Giannis Antetokounmpo F

27.6 pts, 11.2 reb, 4.6 ast in 31.6 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 15 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

MIA

Bam Adebayo C

19.6 pts, 9.8 reb, 3.2 ast in 32 min, 44% FG

vs a defense ranked 15 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

MIA

Andrew Wiggins F

15.2 pts, 4.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 30.3 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 15 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Cavaliers beat the Heat 149-128 at home (2026-03-27). The difference: they shot 63% effective field goal percentage to 52% and they made 19 threes to 15, a 12-point swing. Max Strus led the Cavaliers with 29 points.