CLE
MIN
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Cavaliers +1.0.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 6,460 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Home court: the Timberwolves play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Timberwolves' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 9th in the NBA) meets a Cavaliers defense that ranks 15th.
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Cavaliers win 3,540 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 12 or more.
- History: the Cavaliers won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Cavaliers 10th (14.7), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -5 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.8 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · MIN n/a | CLE 35% · MIN 65% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +182 · MIN -182 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Timberwolves 119, Cavaliers 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 12 and Timberwolves by 22.
Side by side
| CLE | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| +2.7 10 | Net rating | +2.6 11 |
| 114.5 9 | Offensive rating | 112.7 13 |
| 111.8 15 | Defensive rating | 110.1 8 |
| 55.5% 7 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 9 |
| 54.2% 15 | Opponent eFG% | 52.8% 5 |
| 14.2 15 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.3 16 |
| 27.0% 8 | Offensive rebound % | 26.0% 13 |
| 35.4% 19 | 3-point % | 36.7% 6 |
| 102.6 14 | Pace | 103.8 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 2026-27 | MIN 125 @ CLE 127 | CLE |
| 2026-01-10 | 2025-26 | MIN 134 @ CLE 146 | CLE |
| 2026-01-08 | 2025-26 | CLE 122 @ MIN 131 | MIN |
| 2025-02-10 | 2024-25 | MIN 107 @ CLE 128 | CLE |
| 2025-01-18 | 2024-25 | CLE 124 @ MIN 117 | CLE |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works