CLE

Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

NYK

Our pick

NYKNew York Knicks

63% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

CLE 37%NYK 63%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Knicks can win

Simulation: the Knicks win 6,260 of 10,000 simulated games.
Home court: the Knicks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
The Knicks' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 5th in the NBA) meets a Cavaliers defense that ranks 15th.
The Knicks' offense (116.4 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Cavaliers defense that ranks 15th.
Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.9 points to the Knicks in our ratings.

Disadvantages Why Knicks may not

Upset odds: the Cavaliers win 3,740 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 12 or more.
Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Cavaliers 10th (0.21), Knicks 25th (0.19).
Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	NYK -4.6
Total points	n/a	225.6
Win chance	CLE n/a · NYK n/a	CLE 37% · NYK 63%
Fair moneyline		CLE +168 · NYK -168

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Knicks 115, Cavaliers 111.
80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 12 and Knicks by 21.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

CLE		NYK
3-2	Record	2-3
+2.7 10	Net rating	+7.6 3
114.5 9	Offensive rating	116.4 3
111.8 15	Defensive rating	108.7 4
55.5% 7	Effective FG%	55.6% 5
54.2% 15	Opponent eFG%	53.3% 7
14.2 15	Turnovers per 100	13.7 9
27.0% 8	Offensive rebound %	29.3% 5
35.4% 19	3-point %	37.5% 3
102.6 14	Pace	99.8 28

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-05-25	Playoffs	NYK 130 @ CLE 93	NYK
2026-05-23	Playoffs	NYK 121 @ CLE 108	NYK
2026-05-21	Playoffs	CLE 93 @ NYK 109	NYK
2026-05-19	Playoffs	CLE 104 @ NYK 115	NYK
2026-02-24	2025-26	NYK 94 @ CLE 109	CLE

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

CLE

Donovan Mitchell G

27.3 pts, 4.6 reb, 5.1 ast in 34 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

CLE

Evan Mobley C

17.9 pts, 8.8 reb, 3.7 ast in 32.8 min, 54% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

CLE

James Harden G

19.7 pts, 4.9 reb, 6.7 ast in 35.2 min, 43% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

NYK

Jalen Brunson G

26.5 pts, 3.3 reb, 6.6 ast in 35.5 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 15 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

NYK

Karl-Anthony Towns C

19.3 pts, 11.7 reb, 3.4 ast in 30.8 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 15 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

NYK

OG Anunoby F

17.5 pts, 5.5 reb, 2.1 ast in 33.6 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 15 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Knicks beat the Cavaliers 130-93 on the road (East Finals - Game 4). The difference: they won the boards 60 to 33 and they made 19 threes to 11, a 24-point swing.