CLE
ORL
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Cavaliers
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Cavaliers +1.0, Magic -12.5.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to the Cavaliers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Cavaliers win 5,490 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Magic 17th (-0.2).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.1 points to the Cavaliers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- Upset odds: the Magic win 4,510 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Magic play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 15 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Magic 5th (75.2%), Cavaliers 18th (73.8%).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Magic 1st (0.25), Cavaliers 10th (0.21).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -1.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.7 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · ORL n/a | CLE 55% · ORL 45% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE -122 · ORL +122 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Magic 115, Cavaliers 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 18 and Magic by 15.
Side by side
| CLE | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-3 |
| +2.7 10 | Net rating | -0.2 17 |
| 114.5 9 | Offensive rating | 110.4 22 |
| 111.8 15 | Defensive rating | 110.6 9 |
| 55.5% 7 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 28 |
| 54.2% 15 | Opponent eFG% | 53.9% 9 |
| 14.2 15 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.9 11 |
| 27.0% 8 | Offensive rebound % | 24.8% 19 |
| 35.4% 19 | 3-point % | 34.0% 29 |
| 102.6 14 | Pace | 103.1 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | 2025-26 | ORL 131 @ CLE 136 | CLE |
| 2026-03-11 | 2025-26 | CLE 122 @ ORL 128 | ORL |
| 2026-01-26 | 2025-26 | ORL 98 @ CLE 114 | CLE |
| 2026-01-24 | 2025-26 | CLE 119 @ ORL 105 | CLE |
| 2025-03-16 | 2024-25 | ORL 108 @ CLE 103 | ORL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works