CLE

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

PHI

Our pick

PHIPhiladelphia 76ers

55% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

AZMango model

CLE 45%PHI 55%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why 76ers can win

Home court: the 76ers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Simulation: the 76ers win 5,470 of 10,000 simulated games.
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): 76ers 5th (13.1), Cavaliers 15th (14.2).
Strength: the 76ers rank 5th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (13.1).
Strength: the 76ers rank 7th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.22).

Disadvantages Why 76ers may not

Upset odds: the Cavaliers win 4,530 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), 76ers 20th (-0.9).
Point differential per game: Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), 76ers 20th (-1.0).
The Cavaliers' offense (114.5 points per 100 possessions, 9th in the NBA) meets a 76ers defense that ranks 16th.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the 76ers lose by 15 or more.

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	PHI -1.2
Total points	n/a	229.5
Win chance	CLE n/a · PHI n/a	CLE 45% · PHI 55%
Fair moneyline		CLE +121 · PHI -121

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: 76ers 116, Cavaliers 114.
80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 15 and 76ers by 18.

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Side by side

CLE		PHI
3-2	Record	4-1
+2.7 10	Net rating	-0.9 20
114.5 9	Offensive rating	111.2 19
111.8 15	Defensive rating	112.1 16
55.5% 7	Effective FG%	52.7% 27
54.2% 15	Opponent eFG%	54.0% 11
14.2 15	Turnovers per 100	13.1 5
27.0% 8	Offensive rebound %	25.1% 18
35.4% 19	3-point %	34.7% 23
102.6 14	Pace	102.7 13

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-10-22	2026-27	CLE 106 @ PHI 114	PHI
2026-03-09	2025-26	PHI 101 @ CLE 115	CLE
2026-01-16	2025-26	CLE 117 @ PHI 115	CLE
2026-01-14	2025-26	CLE 133 @ PHI 107	CLE
2025-11-05	2025-26	PHI 121 @ CLE 132	CLE

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

CLE

Donovan Mitchell G

27.3 pts, 4.6 reb, 5.1 ast in 34 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 16 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

CLE

Evan Mobley C

17.9 pts, 8.8 reb, 3.7 ast in 32.8 min, 54% FG

vs a defense ranked 16 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

CLE

James Harden G

19.7 pts, 4.9 reb, 6.7 ast in 35.2 min, 43% FG

vs a defense ranked 16 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

PHI

Tyrese Maxey G

27.7 pts, 4.1 reb, 6.4 ast in 38.3 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 15 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

PHI

Joel Embiid C

26 pts, 7.8 reb, 4.2 ast in 32.1 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 15 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

PHI

Jaylen Brown G

20.6 pts, 6.6 reb, 4.2 ast in 36.4 min, 44% FG

vs a defense ranked 15 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The 76ers beat the Cavaliers 114-106 at home (2026-10-22). No single stat stood out; they were a little better across the board. Tyrese Maxey led the 76ers with 32 points.