CLE
PHX
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Phoenix Suns
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Cavaliers
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Cavaliers +1.0, Suns -14.3.
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Suns defense that ranks 16th.
- Simulation: the Cavaliers win 5,250 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.7 points to the Cavaliers in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Suns 16th (+0.2).
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 4,750 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 16 or more.
- Body clock: the Cavaliers cross 2 time zones.
- Three-point shooting: Suns 13th (35.9%), Cavaliers 19th (35.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -1.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.4 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · PHX n/a | CLE 52% · PHX 48% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE -111 · PHX +111 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Suns 115, Cavaliers 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 18 and Suns by 16.
Side by side
| CLE | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-2 |
| +2.7 10 | Net rating | +0.2 16 |
| 114.5 9 | Offensive rating | 111.8 17 |
| 111.8 15 | Defensive rating | 111.6 13 |
| 55.5% 7 | Effective FG% | 53.7% 19 |
| 54.2% 15 | Opponent eFG% | 54.3% 16 |
| 14.2 15 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 19 |
| 27.0% 8 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 7 |
| 35.4% 19 | 3-point % | 35.9% 13 |
| 102.6 14 | Pace | 100.3 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | 2025-26 | CLE 113 @ PHX 126 | PHX |
| 2025-12-31 | 2025-26 | PHX 113 @ CLE 129 | CLE |
| 2025-03-21 | 2024-25 | CLE 112 @ PHX 123 | PHX |
| 2025-01-20 | 2024-25 | PHX 92 @ CLE 118 | CLE |
| 2024-04-03 | 2023-24 | CLE 101 @ PHX 122 | PHX |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works