CLE
POR
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Portland Trail Blazers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Cavaliers +1.0.
- Home court: the Trail Blazers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 5,610 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Body clock: the Cavaliers cross 3 time zones.
- Strength: the Trail Blazers rank 2nd of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (30.9%).
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Upset odds: the Cavaliers win 4,390 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 15th (14.2), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Trail Blazers defense that ranks 12th.
- Point differential per game: Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -1.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.1 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · POR n/a | CLE 44% · POR 56% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +128 · POR -128 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Trail Blazers 117, Cavaliers 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 15 and Trail Blazers by 19.
Side by side
| CLE | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| +2.7 10 | Net rating | -0.5 18 |
| 114.5 9 | Offensive rating | 110.9 21 |
| 111.8 15 | Defensive rating | 111.4 12 |
| 55.5% 7 | Effective FG% | 53.2% 24 |
| 54.2% 15 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 12 |
| 14.2 15 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.3 30 |
| 27.0% 8 | Offensive rebound % | 30.9% 2 |
| 35.4% 19 | 3-point % | 34.1% 28 |
| 102.6 14 | Pace | 103.7 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | 2025-26 | CLE 130 @ POR 111 | CLE |
| 2025-12-03 | 2025-26 | POR 122 @ CLE 110 | POR |
| 2025-03-25 | 2024-25 | CLE 122 @ POR 111 | CLE |
| 2025-03-02 | 2024-25 | POR 129 @ CLE 133 | CLE |
| 2023-11-30 | 2023-24 | POR 103 @ CLE 95 | POR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works