CLE
SAC
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Sacramento Kings
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Cavaliers
71% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.9 points to the Cavaliers in our ratings.
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 29th.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Cavaliers +1.0, Kings -16.6.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Kings 29th (-10.1).
- Simulation: the Cavaliers win 7,120 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Kings win 2,880 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 9 or more.
- Body clock: the Cavaliers cross 3 time zones.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -7.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.9 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · SAC n/a | CLE 71% · SAC 29% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE -247 · SAC +247 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Kings 114, Cavaliers 121.
- 80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 24 and Kings by 9.
Side by side
| CLE | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 0-5 |
| +2.7 10 | Net rating | -10.1 29 |
| 114.5 9 | Offensive rating | 108.3 28 |
| 111.8 15 | Defensive rating | 118.5 28 |
| 55.5% 7 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 29 |
| 54.2% 15 | Opponent eFG% | 57.3% 29 |
| 14.2 15 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.1 14 |
| 27.0% 8 | Offensive rebound % | 25.8% 14 |
| 35.4% 19 | 3-point % | 33.8% 30 |
| 102.6 14 | Pace | 102.4 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | 2025-26 | CLE 132 @ SAC 126 | CLE |
| 2026-01-23 | 2025-26 | SAC 118 @ CLE 123 | CLE |
| 2025-04-06 | 2024-25 | SAC 120 @ CLE 113 | SAC |
| 2025-03-19 | 2024-25 | CLE 119 @ SAC 123 | SAC |
| 2024-02-05 | 2023-24 | SAC 110 @ CLE 136 | CLE |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works