CLE
SAS
Cleveland Cavaliers @ San Antonio Spurs
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
70% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.4 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Spurs win 6,960 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Spurs play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Cavaliers 10th (+2.7).
- The Spurs' offense (115.2 points per 100 possessions, 5th in the NBA) meets a Cavaliers defense that ranks 15th.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Cavaliers win 3,040 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Cavaliers 10th (14.7), Spurs 25th (13.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 10 or more.
- History: the Cavaliers won 5 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -6.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.8 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · SAS n/a | CLE 30% · SAS 70% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +229 · SAS -229 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Spurs 118, Cavaliers 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 10 and Spurs by 24.
Side by side
| CLE | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| +2.7 10 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 114.5 9 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 111.8 15 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 55.5% 7 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 54.2% 15 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 14.2 15 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 27.0% 8 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 10 |
| 35.4% 19 | 3-point % | 35.8% 14 |
| 102.6 14 | Pace | 102.5 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | 2025-26 | CLE 113 @ SAS 101 | CLE |
| 2025-12-05 | 2025-26 | SAS 117 @ CLE 130 | CLE |
| 2025-04-04 | 2024-25 | CLE 114 @ SAS 113 | CLE |
| 2025-03-27 | 2024-25 | SAS 116 @ CLE 124 | CLE |
| 2024-02-03 | 2023-24 | CLE 117 @ SAS 101 | CLE |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works