CLE

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Toronto Raptors

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

TOR

Our pick

TORToronto Raptors

62% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

CLE 38%TOR 62%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Raptors can win

Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Cavaliers +1.0.
Simulation: the Raptors win 6,210 of 10,000 simulated games.
Home court: the Raptors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.9 points to the Raptors in our ratings.

Disadvantages Why Raptors may not

Upset odds: the Cavaliers win 3,790 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 13 or more.
Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Cavaliers 8th (27.0%), Raptors 15th (25.7%).
Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Cavaliers 10th (0.21), Raptors 17th (0.21).
Weak spot: the Raptors rank 21st of 30 in three-point shooting (35.2%).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	TOR -4
Total points	n/a	228.5
Win chance	CLE n/a · TOR n/a	CLE 38% · TOR 62%
Fair moneyline		CLE +164 · TOR -164

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Raptors 116, Cavaliers 112.
80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 13 and Raptors by 21.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

CLE		TOR
3-2	Record	3-1
+2.7 10	Net rating	+3.0 9
114.5 9	Offensive rating	112.4 15
111.8 15	Defensive rating	109.4 7
55.5% 7	Effective FG%	54.3% 15
54.2% 15	Opponent eFG%	53.8% 8
14.2 15	Turnovers per 100	13.6 8
27.0% 8	Offensive rebound %	25.7% 15
35.4% 19	3-point %	35.2% 21
102.6 14	Pace	101.8 21

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-05-03	Playoffs	TOR 102 @ CLE 114	CLE
2026-05-01	Playoffs	CLE 110 @ TOR 112	TOR
2026-04-29	Playoffs	TOR 120 @ CLE 125	CLE
2026-04-26	Playoffs	CLE 89 @ TOR 93	TOR
2026-04-23	Playoffs	CLE 104 @ TOR 126	TOR

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

CLE

Donovan Mitchell G

27.3 pts, 4.6 reb, 5.1 ast in 34 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 7 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.8%)

CLE

Evan Mobley C

17.9 pts, 8.8 reb, 3.7 ast in 32.8 min, 54% FG

vs a defense ranked 7 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.8%)

CLE

James Harden G

19.7 pts, 4.9 reb, 6.7 ast in 35.2 min, 43% FG

vs a defense ranked 7 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.8%)

TOR

Scottie Barnes F

18.6 pts, 7.4 reb, 6.1 ast in 33.8 min, 50% FG

vs a defense ranked 15 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

TOR

Brandon Ingram F

20.9 pts, 5.4 reb, 3.6 ast in 33.5 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 15 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

TOR

RJ Barrett F

19.9 pts, 5.5 reb, 3.4 ast in 31.2 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 15 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Cavaliers beat the Raptors 114-102 at home (East 1st Round - Game 7). The difference: they won the boards 60 to 33 and they made 9 more free throws (27 to 18).