CLE
UTA
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Utah Jazz
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Cavaliers
62% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.9 points to the Cavaliers in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
- The Cavaliers' offense (114.5 points per 100 possessions, 9th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 29th.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Cavaliers +1.0, Jazz -7.8.
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 3,820 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Jazz play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 13 or more.
- Body clock: the Cavaliers cross 2 time zones.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -4.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.4 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · UTA n/a | CLE 62% · UTA 38% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE -162 · UTA +162 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Jazz 116, Cavaliers 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 21 and Jazz by 13.
Side by side
| CLE | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| +2.7 10 | Net rating | -7.9 27 |
| 114.5 9 | Offensive rating | 111.1 20 |
| 111.8 15 | Defensive rating | 119.0 29 |
| 55.5% 7 | Effective FG% | 53.6% 20 |
| 54.2% 15 | Opponent eFG% | 57.6% 30 |
| 14.2 15 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.8 21 |
| 27.0% 8 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 12 |
| 35.4% 19 | 3-point % | 34.4% 24 |
| 102.6 14 | Pace | 105.6 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | 2025-26 | CLE 122 @ UTA 113 | CLE |
| 2026-01-12 | 2025-26 | UTA 123 @ CLE 112 | UTA |
| 2025-03-23 | 2024-25 | CLE 120 @ UTA 91 | CLE |
| 2024-12-23 | 2024-25 | UTA 113 @ CLE 124 | CLE |
| 2024-04-02 | 2023-24 | CLE 129 @ UTA 113 | CLE |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works