CLE
WAS
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Washington Wizards
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Cavaliers
62% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.7 points to the Cavaliers in our ratings.
- The Cavaliers' offense (114.5 points per 100 possessions, 9th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
- Simulation: the Cavaliers win 6,200 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 3,800 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Wizards play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 13 or more.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -4 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.5 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · WAS n/a | CLE 62% · WAS 38% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE -163 · WAS +163 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wizards 115, Cavaliers 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 21 and Wizards by 13.
Side by side
| CLE | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| +2.7 10 | Net rating | -10.9 30 |
| 114.5 9 | Offensive rating | 108.2 29 |
| 111.8 15 | Defensive rating | 119.2 30 |
| 55.5% 7 | Effective FG% | 53.5% 21 |
| 54.2% 15 | Opponent eFG% | 55.9% 27 |
| 14.2 15 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 23 |
| 27.0% 8 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 22 |
| 35.4% 19 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 102.6 14 | Pace | 104.3 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-27 | WAS 111 @ CLE 121 | CLE |
| 2026-04-12 | 2025-26 | WAS 117 @ CLE 130 | CLE |
| 2026-02-11 | 2025-26 | WAS 113 @ CLE 138 | CLE |
| 2025-12-12 | 2025-26 | CLE 130 @ WAS 126 | CLE |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-26 | CLE 148 @ WAS 115 | CLE |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works