DAL

Dallas Mavericks @ Atlanta Hawks

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

ATL

Our pick

ATLAtlanta Hawks

61% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

DAL 39%ATL 61%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Hawks can win

Simulation: the Hawks win 6,080 of 10,000 simulated games.
Home court: the Hawks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hawks 14th (+1.2), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
Three-point shooting: Hawks 7th (36.7%), Mavericks 26th (34.4%).
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Hawks 6th (15.4), Mavericks 26th (12.8).

Disadvantages Why Hawks may not

Upset odds: the Mavericks win 3,920 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 13 or more.
Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Mavericks 13th (0.21), Hawks 27th (0.18).
Weak spot: the Hawks rank 27th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
Weak spot: the Hawks rank 20th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (24.3%).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	ATL -3.4
Total points	n/a	234
Win chance	DAL n/a · ATL n/a	DAL 39% · ATL 61%
Fair moneyline		DAL +155 · ATL -155

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Hawks 119, Mavericks 115.
80% of simulations land between Mavericks by 13 and Hawks by 20.

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Side by side

DAL		ATL
3-2	Record	3-3
-4.8 23	Net rating	+1.2 14
108.7 26	Offensive rating	112.5 14
113.5 20	Defensive rating	111.3 11
52.9% 25	Effective FG%	55.0% 11
54.5% 17	Opponent eFG%	54.6% 19
14.0 13	Turnovers per 100	13.6 7
23.4% 25	Offensive rebound %	24.3% 20
34.4% 26	3-point %	36.7% 7
105.0 4	Pace	104.3 6

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-03-18	2025-26	ATL 135 @ DAL 120	ATL
2026-03-10	2025-26	DAL 112 @ ATL 124	ATL
2025-04-02	2024-25	ATL 118 @ DAL 120	DAL
2024-11-25	2024-25	DAL 129 @ ATL 119	DAL
2024-04-04	2023-24	ATL 95 @ DAL 109	DAL

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

DAL

Cooper Flagg F

21.3 pts, 6.6 reb, 4.6 ast in 33.4 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

DAL

Kyrie Irving G

18 pts, 3.2 reb, 3.8 ast in 27.2 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

DAL

Naji Marshall F

15.2 pts, 4.6 reb, 3.4 ast in 29.4 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

ATL

Jalen Johnson F

22.1 pts, 10 reb, 7.7 ast in 35.1 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 20 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.5%)

ATL

Nickeil Alexander-Walker G

20.3 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.5 ast in 33.3 min, 45% FG

vs a defense ranked 20 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.5%)

ATL

Dyson Daniels G

11.5 pts, 6.7 reb, 5.8 ast in 32.5 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 20 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.5%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Hawks beat the Mavericks 135-120 on the road (2026-03-18). The difference: they committed 8 fewer turnovers (11 to 19) and they made 14 threes to 11, a 9-point swing.