DAL
BKN
Dallas Mavericks @ Brooklyn Nets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Mavericks
63% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Mavericks can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.8 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Mavericks +2.0, Nets -9.8.
- Simulation: the Mavericks win 6,270 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.1 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Mavericks 13th (14.0), Nets 29th (15.8).
Disadvantages Why Mavericks may not
- Home court: the Nets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Nets win 3,730 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Nets 12th (14.6), Mavericks 26th (12.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Mavericks lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: the Mavericks rank 26th of 30 in offense, points per 100 possessions (108.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -4.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 232 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · BKN n/a | DAL 63% · BKN 37% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL -168 · BKN +168 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nets 114, Mavericks 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Mavericks by 21 and Nets by 13.
Side by side
| DAL | BKN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 0-4 |
| -4.8 23 | Net rating | -9.9 28 |
| 108.7 26 | Offensive rating | 105.9 30 |
| 113.5 20 | Defensive rating | 115.9 26 |
| 52.9% 25 | Effective FG% | 52.0% 30 |
| 54.5% 17 | Opponent eFG% | 57.2% 28 |
| 14.0 13 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.8 29 |
| 23.4% 25 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 23 |
| 34.4% 26 | 3-point % | 34.2% 27 |
| 105.0 4 | Pace | 100.4 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-24 | 2025-26 | DAL 123 @ BKN 114 | DAL |
| 2026-01-12 | 2025-26 | BKN 105 @ DAL 113 | DAL |
| 2025-12-12 | 2025-26 | BKN 111 @ DAL 119 | DAL |
| 2025-03-31 | 2024-25 | BKN 113 @ DAL 109 | BKN |
| 2025-03-24 | 2024-25 | DAL 120 @ BKN 101 | DAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works