DAL
BOS
Dallas Mavericks @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
66% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 20th.
- Simulation: the Celtics win 6,590 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Celtics 4th (+7.3), Mavericks 23rd (-5.1).
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Mavericks win 3,410 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 12 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Mavericks 13th (0.21), Celtics 29th (0.17).
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 27th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -5.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.2 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · BOS n/a | DAL 34% · BOS 66% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL +193 · BOS -193 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 117, Mavericks 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Mavericks by 12 and Celtics by 22.
Side by side
| DAL | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| -4.8 23 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 108.7 26 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 113.5 20 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 52.9% 25 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 54.5% 17 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 14.0 13 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 23.4% 25 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 34.4% 26 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 105.0 4 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | 2025-26 | DAL 100 @ BOS 120 | BOS |
| 2026-02-03 | 2025-26 | BOS 110 @ DAL 100 | BOS |
| 2025-02-06 | 2024-25 | DAL 127 @ BOS 120 | DAL |
| 2025-01-25 | 2024-25 | BOS 122 @ DAL 107 | BOS |
| 2024-06-17 | Playoffs | DAL 88 @ BOS 106 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works