DAL
CHI
Dallas Mavericks @ Chicago Bulls
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Mavericks
62% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Mavericks can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Mavericks +2.0, Bulls -16.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Mavericks win 6,250 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.1 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- History: the Mavericks won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
Disadvantages Why Mavericks may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 3,750 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Bulls play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Mavericks lose by 13 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bulls 6th (75.1%), Mavericks 16th (73.9%).
- Weak spot: the Mavericks rank 26th of 30 in offense, points per 100 possessions (108.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -4 |
| Total points | n/a | 239.6 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · CHI n/a | DAL 62% · CHI 38% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL -166 · CHI +166 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bulls 118, Mavericks 122.
- 80% of simulations land between Mavericks by 20 and Bulls by 13.
Side by side
| DAL | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| -4.8 23 | Net rating | -5.5 24 |
| 108.7 26 | Offensive rating | 110.1 25 |
| 113.5 20 | Defensive rating | 115.6 25 |
| 52.9% 25 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 14 |
| 54.5% 17 | Opponent eFG% | 55.3% 21 |
| 14.0 13 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 17 |
| 23.4% 25 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 26 |
| 34.4% 26 | 3-point % | 35.0% 22 |
| 105.0 4 | Pace | 105.5 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 2025-26 | CHI 128 @ DAL 149 | DAL |
| 2026-01-10 | 2025-26 | DAL 107 @ CHI 125 | CHI |
| 2025-03-29 | 2024-25 | DAL 120 @ CHI 119 | DAL |
| 2024-11-06 | 2024-25 | CHI 99 @ DAL 119 | DAL |
| 2024-03-11 | 2023-24 | DAL 127 @ CHI 92 | DAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works