DAL
CLE
Dallas Mavericks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Cavaliers
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
- Simulation: the Cavaliers win 5,870 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Cavaliers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 17th.
- The Cavaliers' offense (114.5 points per 100 possessions, 9th in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 20th.
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- Upset odds: the Mavericks win 4,130 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 14 or more.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
- Rest days: teams sometimes sit healthy players, which isn't always on the injury report early.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -2.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.4 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · CLE n/a | DAL 41% · CLE 59% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL +142 · CLE -142 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Cavaliers 118, Mavericks 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Mavericks by 14 and Cavaliers by 19.
Side by side
| DAL | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| -4.8 23 | Net rating | +2.7 10 |
| 108.7 26 | Offensive rating | 114.5 9 |
| 113.5 20 | Defensive rating | 111.8 15 |
| 52.9% 25 | Effective FG% | 55.5% 7 |
| 54.5% 17 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 15 |
| 14.0 13 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.2 15 |
| 23.4% 25 | Offensive rebound % | 27.0% 8 |
| 34.4% 26 | 3-point % | 35.4% 19 |
| 105.0 4 | Pace | 102.6 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | 2025-26 | DAL 130 @ CLE 120 | DAL |
| 2026-03-13 | 2025-26 | CLE 138 @ DAL 105 | CLE |
| 2025-02-02 | 2024-25 | DAL 101 @ CLE 144 | CLE |
| 2025-01-03 | 2024-25 | CLE 134 @ DAL 122 | CLE |
| 2024-02-27 | 2023-24 | DAL 119 @ CLE 121 | CLE |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works