DAL

Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

DEN

Our pick

DENDenver Nuggets

57% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

DAL 43%DEN 57%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Nuggets can win

Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 20th.
The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 17th.
Simulation: the Nuggets win 5,690 of 10,000 simulated games.
Home court: the Nuggets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.

Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not

Upset odds: the Mavericks win 4,310 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 14 or more.
Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 30th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (11.9).
Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 28th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.3%).
Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 21st of 30 in defense, points allowed per 100 possessions (114.1).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	DEN -2.4
Total points	n/a	231.6
Win chance	DAL n/a · DEN n/a	DAL 43% · DEN 57%
Fair moneyline		DAL +132 · DEN -132

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Nuggets 117, Mavericks 115.
80% of simulations land between Mavericks by 14 and Nuggets by 19.

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Side by side

DAL		DEN
3-2	Record	2-2
-4.8 23	Net rating	+4.1 7
108.7 26	Offensive rating	118.2 1
113.5 20	Defensive rating	114.1 21
52.9% 25	Effective FG%	56.9% 2
54.5% 17	Opponent eFG%	54.1% 13
14.0 13	Turnovers per 100	12.7 3
23.4% 25	Offensive rebound %	23.3% 28
34.4% 26	3-point %	38.8% 1
105.0 4	Pace	102.1 20

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-03-25	2025-26	DAL 135 @ DEN 142	DEN
2026-01-14	2025-26	DEN 118 @ DAL 109	DEN
2025-12-23	2025-26	DEN 130 @ DAL 131	DAL
2025-12-01	2025-26	DAL 131 @ DEN 121	DAL
2025-01-14	2024-25	DEN 118 @ DAL 99	DEN

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

DAL

Cooper Flagg F

21.3 pts, 6.6 reb, 4.6 ast in 33.4 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

DAL

Kyrie Irving G

18 pts, 3.2 reb, 3.8 ast in 27.2 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

DAL

Naji Marshall F

15.2 pts, 4.6 reb, 3.4 ast in 29.4 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

DEN

Nikola Jokic C

27.2 pts, 12.8 reb, 10.5 ast in 35.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 20 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.5%)

DEN

Jamal Murray G

25.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 7 ast in 35.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 20 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.5%)

DEN

Aaron Gordon F

15.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 28.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 20 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.5%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Nuggets beat the Mavericks 142-135 at home (2026-03-25). The difference: they shot 67% effective field goal percentage to 56% and they made 19 threes to 12, a 21-point swing. Jamal Murray led the Nuggets with 53 points.