DAL
GSW
Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
GSWGolden State Warriors
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Warriors can win
- Home court: the Warriors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Warriors win 5,420 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Warriors 5th (15.7), Mavericks 26th (12.8).
- The Warriors' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 12th in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 17th.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Warriors 11th (26.3%), Mavericks 25th (23.4%).
Disadvantages Why Warriors may not
- Upset odds: the Mavericks win 4,580 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Mavericks 13th (14.0), Warriors 27th (15.5).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Warriors lose by 16 or more.
- Weak spot: the Warriors rank 27th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.5).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Mavericks 13th (0.21), Warriors 24th (0.20).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GSW -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.8 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · GSW n/a | DAL 46% · GSW 54% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL +118 · GSW -118 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Warriors 117, Mavericks 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Mavericks by 16 and Warriors by 18.
Side by side
| DAL | GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| -4.8 23 | Net rating | -0.7 19 |
| 108.7 26 | Offensive rating | 112.2 16 |
| 113.5 20 | Defensive rating | 112.9 17 |
| 52.9% 25 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 12 |
| 54.5% 17 | Opponent eFG% | 55.6% 24 |
| 14.0 13 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.5 27 |
| 23.4% 25 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 11 |
| 34.4% 26 | 3-point % | 35.7% 16 |
| 105.0 4 | Pace | 102.3 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | 2025-26 | GSW 137 @ DAL 131 | GSW |
| 2026-01-22 | 2025-26 | GSW 115 @ DAL 123 | DAL |
| 2025-12-25 | 2025-26 | DAL 116 @ GSW 126 | GSW |
| 2025-02-23 | 2024-25 | DAL 102 @ GSW 126 | GSW |
| 2025-02-12 | 2024-25 | GSW 107 @ DAL 111 | DAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works