DAL

Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

HOU

Our pick

HOUHouston Rockets

74% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

DAL 26%HOU 74%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Rockets can win

Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.1 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Mavericks +2.0.
Simulation: the Rockets win 7,350 of 10,000 simulated games.
Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.4 points to the Rockets in our ratings.

Disadvantages Why Rockets may not

Upset odds: the Mavericks win 2,650 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Mavericks 13th (14.0), Rockets 26th (15.4).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 9 or more.
Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	HOU -8.3
Total points	n/a	228.4
Win chance	DAL n/a · HOU n/a	DAL 26% · HOU 74%
Fair moneyline		DAL +278 · HOU -278

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Rockets 118, Mavericks 110.
80% of simulations land between Mavericks by 9 and Rockets by 25.

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Side by side

DAL		HOU
3-2	Record	5-0
-4.8 23	Net rating	+5.2 6
108.7 26	Offensive rating	114.6 8
113.5 20	Defensive rating	109.4 6
52.9% 25	Effective FG%	54.0% 18
54.5% 17	Opponent eFG%	53.0% 6
14.0 13	Turnovers per 100	15.4 26
23.4% 25	Offensive rebound %	34.3% 1
34.4% 26	3-point %	36.2% 11
105.0 4	Pace	100.0 27

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-10-21	2026-27	DAL 110 @ HOU 128	HOU
2026-01-31	2025-26	DAL 107 @ HOU 111	HOU
2026-01-03	2025-26	HOU 104 @ DAL 110	DAL
2025-12-06	2025-26	HOU 109 @ DAL 122	DAL
2025-11-03	2025-26	DAL 102 @ HOU 110	HOU

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

DAL

Cooper Flagg F

21.3 pts, 6.6 reb, 4.6 ast in 33.4 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 6 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.0%)

DAL

Kyrie Irving G

18 pts, 3.2 reb, 3.8 ast in 27.2 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 6 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.0%)

DAL

Naji Marshall F

15.2 pts, 4.6 reb, 3.4 ast in 29.4 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 6 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.0%)

HOU

Kevin Durant F

25.7 pts, 5.5 reb, 4.7 ast in 36.4 min, 52% FG

vs a defense ranked 20 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.5%)

HOU

Alperen Sengun C

20.6 pts, 9 reb, 6.1 ast in 33.8 min, 52% FG

vs a defense ranked 20 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.5%)

HOU

Amen Thompson G

18.3 pts, 7.7 reb, 5.3 ast in 37.6 min, 53% FG

vs a defense ranked 20 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.5%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Rockets beat the Mavericks 128-110 at home (2026-10-21). The difference: they made 16 threes to 11, a 15-point swing and they won the boards 42 to 33. Kevin Durant led the Rockets with 30 points.