DAL
LAC
Dallas Mavericks @ LA Clippers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LACLA Clippers
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Clippers can win
- The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 17th.
- Home court: the Clippers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Clippers win 5,610 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Clippers 15th (+0.9), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
- Three-point shooting: Clippers 5th (36.9%), Mavericks 26th (34.4%).
Disadvantages Why Clippers may not
- Upset odds: the Mavericks win 4,390 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Clippers lose by 15 or more.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Mavericks 13th (14.0), Clippers 20th (14.7).
- Weak spot: the Clippers rank 25th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (72.8%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Mavericks 16th (73.9%), Clippers 25th (72.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -1.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.1 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · LAC n/a | DAL 44% · LAC 56% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL +128 · LAC -128 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Clippers 115, Mavericks 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Mavericks by 15 and Clippers by 19.
Side by side
| DAL | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-3 |
| -4.8 23 | Net rating | +0.9 15 |
| 108.7 26 | Offensive rating | 114.0 10 |
| 113.5 20 | Defensive rating | 113.0 18 |
| 52.9% 25 | Effective FG% | 55.9% 4 |
| 54.5% 17 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 18 |
| 14.0 13 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.7 20 |
| 23.4% 25 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 24 |
| 34.4% 26 | 3-point % | 36.9% 5 |
| 105.0 4 | Pace | 99.6 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | 2025-26 | DAL 103 @ LAC 116 | LAC |
| 2026-03-21 | 2025-26 | LAC 138 @ DAL 131 | LAC |
| 2025-11-29 | 2025-26 | DAL 114 @ LAC 110 | DAL |
| 2025-11-14 | 2025-26 | LAC 133 @ DAL 127 | LAC |
| 2025-04-05 | 2024-25 | DAL 104 @ LAC 135 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works