DAL
LAL
Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Lakers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
68% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 17th.
- Simulation: the Lakers win 6,790 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
- The Lakers' offense (114.7 points per 100 possessions, 6th in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 20th.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Lakers +9.6, Mavericks +2.0.
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- Upset odds: the Mavericks win 3,210 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Lakers lose by 11 or more.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Mavericks 13th (14.0), Lakers 22nd (14.9).
- Weak spot: the Lakers rank 22nd of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (14.9).
- Weak spot: the Lakers rank 21st of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (24.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -5.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.1 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · LAL n/a | DAL 32% · LAL 68% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL +211 · LAL -211 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Lakers 119, Mavericks 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Mavericks by 11 and Lakers by 22.
Side by side
| DAL | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| -4.8 23 | Net rating | +1.5 13 |
| 108.7 26 | Offensive rating | 114.7 6 |
| 113.5 20 | Defensive rating | 113.2 19 |
| 52.9% 25 | Effective FG% | 57.2% 1 |
| 54.5% 17 | Opponent eFG% | 55.2% 20 |
| 14.0 13 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.9 22 |
| 23.4% 25 | Offensive rebound % | 24.2% 21 |
| 34.4% 26 | 3-point % | 36.3% 9 |
| 105.0 4 | Pace | 100.5 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | 2025-26 | LAL 128 @ DAL 134 | DAL |
| 2026-02-12 | 2025-26 | DAL 104 @ LAL 124 | LAL |
| 2026-01-24 | 2025-26 | LAL 116 @ DAL 110 | LAL |
| 2025-11-28 | 2025-26 | DAL 119 @ LAL 129 | LAL |
| 2025-04-09 | 2024-25 | LAL 112 @ DAL 97 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works