DAL
MEM
Dallas Mavericks @ Memphis Grizzlies
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MEMMemphis Grizzlies
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Grizzlies can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Mavericks +2.0.
- Simulation: the Grizzlies win 5,880 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Grizzlies 8th (14.9), Mavericks 26th (12.8).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not
- Upset odds: the Mavericks win 4,120 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Grizzlies lose by 14 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Mavericks 16th (73.9%), Grizzlies 29th (71.0%).
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 29th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.0%).
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 26th of 30 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (55.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MEM -2.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.2 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · MEM n/a | DAL 41% · MEM 59% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL +143 · MEM -143 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 117, Mavericks 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Mavericks by 14 and Grizzlies by 19.
Side by side
| DAL | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| -4.8 23 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 108.7 26 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 113.5 20 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 52.9% 25 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 54.5% 17 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 14.0 13 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 23.4% 25 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 34.4% 26 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 105.0 4 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | 2025-26 | DAL 120 @ MEM 112 | DAL |
| 2026-02-27 | 2025-26 | MEM 124 @ DAL 105 | MEM |
| 2025-11-22 | 2025-26 | MEM 102 @ DAL 96 | MEM |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-26 | DAL 104 @ MEM 118 | MEM |
| 2025-04-18 | 2024-25 | DAL 106 @ MEM 120 | MEM |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works