DAL
MIA
Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MIAMiami Heat
50% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Heat can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Heat 12th (+1.6), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
- Home court: the Heat play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Heat win 5,030 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Heat' offense (113.4 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 20th.
- Point differential per game: Heat 12th (+1.7), Mavericks 23rd (-5.1).
Disadvantages Why Heat may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Mavericks +2.0, Heat -7.8.
- Upset odds: the Mavericks win 4,970 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Heat lose by 17 or more.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.6 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 236.7 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · MIA n/a | DAL 50% · MIA 50% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL +101 · MIA -101 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Heat 119, Mavericks 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Mavericks by 17 and Heat by 17.
Side by side
| DAL | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| -4.8 23 | Net rating | +1.6 12 |
| 108.7 26 | Offensive rating | 113.4 11 |
| 113.5 20 | Defensive rating | 111.8 14 |
| 52.9% 25 | Effective FG% | 54.1% 17 |
| 54.5% 17 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 14 |
| 14.0 13 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 4 |
| 23.4% 25 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 16 |
| 34.4% 26 | 3-point % | 35.9% 12 |
| 105.0 4 | Pace | 106.3 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 2026-27 | DAL 113 @ MIA 109 | DAL |
| 2025-12-03 | 2025-26 | MIA 108 @ DAL 118 | DAL |
| 2025-11-24 | 2025-26 | DAL 102 @ MIA 106 | MIA |
| 2025-02-13 | 2024-25 | MIA 113 @ DAL 118 | DAL |
| 2024-11-24 | 2024-25 | DAL 118 @ MIA 123 | MIA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works