DAL
MIL
Dallas Mavericks @ Milwaukee Bucks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Mavericks
62% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Mavericks can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.9 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Mavericks +2.0, Bucks -10.8.
- Simulation: the Mavericks win 6,250 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.1 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Mavericks 13th (14.0), Bucks 25th (15.2).
Disadvantages Why Mavericks may not
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 17th.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 3,750 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Bucks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Mavericks 26th (34.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Mavericks lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -4.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.1 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · MIL n/a | DAL 62% · MIL 37% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL -167 · MIL +167 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bucks 114, Mavericks 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Mavericks by 21 and Bucks by 13.
Side by side
| DAL | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| -4.8 23 | Net rating | -6.4 25 |
| 108.7 26 | Offensive rating | 110.1 24 |
| 113.5 20 | Defensive rating | 116.5 27 |
| 52.9% 25 | Effective FG% | 56.3% 3 |
| 54.5% 17 | Opponent eFG% | 55.7% 25 |
| 14.0 13 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.2 25 |
| 23.4% 25 | Offensive rebound % | 21.7% 30 |
| 34.4% 26 | 3-point % | 38.4% 2 |
| 105.0 4 | Pace | 100.6 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2025-26 | DAL 99 @ MIL 123 | MIL |
| 2025-11-10 | 2025-26 | MIL 116 @ DAL 114 | MIL |
| 2025-03-05 | 2024-25 | DAL 107 @ MIL 137 | MIL |
| 2025-03-01 | 2024-25 | MIL 132 @ DAL 117 | MIL |
| 2024-02-03 | 2023-24 | MIL 129 @ DAL 117 | MIL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works