DAL
MIN
Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
68% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Mavericks +2.0.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 6,850 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.1 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Timberwolves 11th (+2.6), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
- Home court: the Timberwolves play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Mavericks win 3,150 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 10 or more.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
- Rest days: teams sometimes sit healthy players, which isn't always on the injury report early.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -6.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.7 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · MIN n/a | DAL 32% · MIN 68% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL +218 · MIN -218 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Timberwolves 119, Mavericks 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Mavericks by 10 and Timberwolves by 23.
Side by side
| DAL | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| -4.8 23 | Net rating | +2.6 11 |
| 108.7 26 | Offensive rating | 112.7 13 |
| 113.5 20 | Defensive rating | 110.1 8 |
| 52.9% 25 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 9 |
| 54.5% 17 | Opponent eFG% | 52.8% 5 |
| 14.0 13 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.3 16 |
| 23.4% 25 | Offensive rebound % | 26.0% 13 |
| 34.4% 26 | 3-point % | 36.7% 6 |
| 105.0 4 | Pace | 103.8 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | 2025-26 | MIN 124 @ DAL 94 | MIN |
| 2026-02-20 | 2025-26 | DAL 111 @ MIN 122 | MIN |
| 2026-01-28 | 2025-26 | MIN 118 @ DAL 105 | MIN |
| 2025-11-17 | 2025-26 | DAL 96 @ MIN 120 | MIN |
| 2025-01-22 | 2024-25 | MIN 115 @ DAL 114 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works