DAL

Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Pelicans

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

NOP

Our pick

DALDallas Mavericks

52% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

AZMango model

DAL 52%NOP 48%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Mavericks can win

Simulation: the Mavericks win 5,240 of 10,000 simulated games.
Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.0 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Mavericks 16th (73.9%), Pelicans 27th (71.7%).
Relative strength: the Mavericks rank 13th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (14.0).

Disadvantages Why Mavericks may not

Upset odds: the Pelicans win 4,760 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Home court: the Pelicans play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pelicans 9th (26.7%), Mavericks 25th (23.4%).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Mavericks lose by 16 or more.
Weak spot: the Mavericks rank 26th of 30 in offense, points per 100 possessions (108.7).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	DAL -0.9
Total points	n/a	236.2
Win chance	DAL n/a · NOP n/a	DAL 52% · NOP 48%
Fair moneyline		DAL -110 · NOP +110

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Pelicans 118, Mavericks 119.
80% of simulations land between Mavericks by 17 and Pelicans by 16.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

DAL		NOP
3-2	Record	1-4
-4.8 23	Net rating	-4.2 21
108.7 26	Offensive rating	111.2 18
113.5 20	Defensive rating	115.4 23
52.9% 25	Effective FG%	52.8% 26
54.5% 17	Opponent eFG%	55.5% 23
14.0 13	Turnovers per 100	13.8 10
23.4% 25	Offensive rebound %	26.7% 9
34.4% 26	3-point %	34.4% 25
105.0 4	Pace	104.1 8

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-03-16	2025-26	DAL 111 @ NOP 129	NOP
2025-12-22	2025-26	DAL 113 @ NOP 119	NOP
2025-11-21	2025-26	NOP 115 @ DAL 118	DAL
2025-11-05	2025-26	NOP 101 @ DAL 99	NOP
2025-02-21	2024-25	NOP 103 @ DAL 111	DAL

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

DAL

Cooper Flagg F

21.3 pts, 6.6 reb, 4.6 ast in 33.4 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 23 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.5%)

DAL

Kyrie Irving G

18 pts, 3.2 reb, 3.8 ast in 27.2 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 23 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.5%)

DAL

Naji Marshall F

15.2 pts, 4.6 reb, 3.4 ast in 29.4 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 23 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.5%)

NOP

Zion Williamson F

21.1 pts, 5.6 reb, 3.1 ast in 29.9 min, 60% FG

vs a defense ranked 20 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.5%)

NOP

Trey Murphy III F

21 pts, 5.6 reb, 3.7 ast in 35.3 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 20 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.5%)

NOP

Dejounte Murray G

16.9 pts, 5.4 reb, 6.3 ast in 28.8 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 20 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.5%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Pelicans beat the Mavericks 129-111 at home (2026-03-16). The difference: they made 13 more free throws (22 to 9) and they shot 56% effective field goal percentage to 49%. Zion Williamson led the Pelicans with 27 points.